December's Echo

More shakeout from December retail business (click headline to read story):

Saks To Cut 9% of Workforce

Saks, as previously noted, is one of the company's in BIG trouble. Along with cutting 1100 jobs (most of which I cannot imagine coming from New York, where the company is strongest), the company plans to reduce inventory by 20%, has decided to close it's Club Libby Lu chain entirely and suspended a number of benefits to employees.

Let me be the first to say, it won't be enough. Print it.

Macy's Looking to Make Further Cuts

Macy's is planning to cut their four regional offices down to two, eliminating Miami and Atlanta, with New York and San Francisco remaining.

As I stated last month after their announcement of 11 store closings, this is still the tip of the iceberg. I foresee lots more trimming in the near future, as the longer they wait, the more severe the measures needed to right the ship.

Not all my prognostications for the Retail Sector were negative for the Holiday Season.

Video Game Industry Roars in December

A 9% increase for December year-over-year, and 19% increase YTD 2008! 

That is a "roar", if ever I heard one.

The revenue for the industry also was over $5 BILLION for the month for the 1st time in history.

As stated in November, the value to cost ratio for gaming has no rival, with $30-$60 games providing, literally, weeks of entertainment.

Look for this win streak to continue.

Lastly, while most retailers are still refusing to fully face the realities of the new economy, one (the same as always) retailer stands above all the rest in how they are dealing with the downturn, Walmart.

Walmart Sees New Realities for Retailers

Love 'em or hate 'em, Walmart may not be the prettiest girl in the class, but there can be no doubt they are valedictorian. 

Lee Scott was on Charlie Rose yesterday, in what I think is a must see interview. He discussed the impact the economy is having on Small Businesses and suppliers, which has not been discussed with the degree of specificity Mr. Scott shared. 

As they move forward, the focus at their stores will be continued improvement in customer service (he said this is not a slogan, but a actual goal), a better edited buying selection (less is more in his eyes, which is sooooo smart) and better presentation standards (thus making the store easier to shop for the consumer).

Three simple goals, which will translate into a big win for the world's biggest retailer. 

Not sexy, just smart. A formula to emulate if ever there was one.

Psychology in the Economic Marketplace, Part I

Ben Bernanke needs some help. This is my contribution:

In 1969 Elisabeth Kubler-Ross described, with great specificity, the five stages human beings go through to cope with tragedy and grief, especially in regards to terminal illness. This led to ground-breaking research and new treatment models throughout the medical diaspora, and is now taught as an essential part of any Psychology 101 class.

The following are the five stages, more universally known as DABDA:

Stage 1 Denial "This isn't happening to me"

Stage 2 Anger "Why me?"

Stage 3 Bargaining "I'll do anything if I can live on."

Stage 4 Depression "Why should I do anything? It wont matter."

Stage 5 Acceptance "This is inevitable. I will make the most of what's left."

Before reviewing current economic conditions through the lens of these five stages, understand the terminal patient in our model is the old Western Financial Model, not America, which will re-emerge. 

Stage 1 - Denial

It is quite simple to point at Summer 2008 as America's "period of denial", though I have a differing theory.

The Denial Stage started in September of 2006, a month after home prices peaked, sending lenders (Banking Institutions) into an industry-wide panic as to how to fight off the inevitable fall in the Housing Sector/Recession, sure to occur during that year's 4th Quarter or the 1st Quarter of 2007.

The solution these lenders came up with was to open up the housing market to the only people in America that did not currently own the housing they lived in, people unable to afford to the costs of making such a large purchase, many of which where low-income racial minorities.

As ridiculous as it sounds (Literally giving money to people that CANNOT repay the loan), the rush of new home buyers had the duel effect of: continuing the home building boom in the country (intended), while simultaneously causing prices of existing housing inventory  to rise precipitously (unintended).

The bad loans were securitized (bundled, chopped up and re-bundled) by the lending institutions, then sold to others on the world financial market, thus leaving the lenders with zero risk for the very risky, highly predatory loans.

The endgame was set before the first loan was made. The system's death sentence was set before the first loan was made. This was the ultimate form of denial.

Stage 2 - Anger

The Anger Stage set in as you started to hear reports of "waitresses buying million dollar homes." Although the wider public had no idea of what was coming down the road, the lending institutions started putting the onus of impending doom on the people at the bottom of America's totem pole, the working-class.

"Why did they take such big loans?", they asked. "What were these people thinking?", newspaper headlines screamed. The term "sub-prime" entered the lexicon of American public as a negative connotation for, not the predatory lenders, but instead, the borrowers.

False outrage from the banking institutions gave rise to real outrage in communities throughout America, as home-owners began to find it harder to sell their homes.

Whether the  difficulty arose from lack of interest from new home-buyers, sliding home values due to unkempt or abandoned vacancies in their neighborhoods, or the lack of loans available to those that truly qualified, home-owners with inventory to sell found themselves at the front line of a problem they could never have seen coming.

To home-owners, anger was the only rational reaction to the unpredictable circumstance which had befallen them. To lending institutions, faux anger was the only way to keep the public eye off trail of the actual culprits.

Stage 3 - Bargaining

The Bargaining Stage is perhaps the most perilous stage in the process. In is the stage the full extent of the problem crystallizes, which in turn often leads to drastic measures being taken to improve the diagnosis.

The Bargaining Stage for this financial crisis was characterized by the Federal Reserve making steady cuts to the Interest Rate, all the way down to virtually nothing, to help reverse the future which was set in motion so long ago. Additionally, the TARP ($700 billion) bill was passed in haste by Congress and signed by the President, and an additional $2 trillion dollars in "emergency loans" was issued by the Treasury Department to the same lending institutions that brought the crisis to bear. The thinking being, everything was on the table to save the old system.

For home-owners the bargaining stage was disastrous, characterized by actions that only worsened their collective situations.

Upon the first evidence of a slow-down in the housing market, instead of reporting the origins and culprits of the problem, media cranked up their output of their perceived solution to the problem, home improvement. The HGTV network best exemplifies the new attitude, changing the majority of it's programming from a theme in line with What You Get For the Money - a show built around sharing how much home you can buy for the same price in several different cities, to more programming like Curb Appeal - a show about enhancing you ability to sell your home by making minor changes to your home. And for the most part, home-owners went for it wholesale.

Even with a downturn in the housing market, retailers such as Home Depot, Lowes and Menard's saw brisk business through the entirety of 2007 and the very early part of 2008.  Americans decided a new marble kitchen and/ or luxury bathroom would change their fortunes, with many taking out equity loans to make the necessary changes. 

When home improvements did not work, home-owners turned to incentives in hopes of unloading their unwanted property. Covering closing costs, down-payment assistance, new paint budgeting and assessment deferrals became the norm. The problem with incentives was individual owners could not compete with Developers, who were giving the same incentives, in addition to free scooters, cars, upgraded appliances and gift cards. The problem remained unchanged.

Lastly, and begrudgingly, home-owners started to accept their ability to sell their homes at asking prices was illusory, so they started to discount the prices of the houses.

This is what the media called the "bubble" bursting.

With home prices peaking in August of 2006, many major cities had not seen an even 10% correction (price drop to reality) as of April 2008. However massive discounting across the country led the national average to see a drop in the high teens by June of that year.

Two months later, in August of 2008, banks had stopped lending money, even to qualified applicants, and the die was cast.

Home-owners were left with a home the did not want, at a price they could not pay, worth  a lot less than was paid for it, and a home equity loan taken out to pay for the improvements and incentives offered to the increasingly shrinking home-buyer pool that found it virtually impossible qualify for a loan of any kind.

This led to the Stock Market failure in September and then, ultimately, to...

Stage 4 - Depression

In many ways, this is the stage we are currently in as of this writing. 

There is so much confusion about what happened, why nothing is seeming to have an impact on the situation and how to move forward, Americans for the most part have chosen to just tune out.

We would rather just ignore this mess, not talk about it. "This to shall pass", seems to be the refrain of the moment.

The is unanimity in the understanding of where we are in our history, however there is no real mobilization by the leadership. Has anyone asked of us to sacrifice anything since this crisis began? We were told to, "get out there and grab those bargains" for Christmas.

The collective depression has led to stagnation in the housing market, with sellers holding firm on prices at hat are admittedly overly-inflated, buyers looking for new homes at foreclosure pricing, financially overly-extended families literally packing up and walking away from homes their kids grew up in, and banks too busy predating themselves to open up the credit instruments necessary to get the economy moving again.

We are all collectively stung...and depressed.

Stage 5 - Acceptance

The very final stage before transition, though it is not necessarily guaranteed that everyone makes it here, as depression can be a mutha!

The Acceptance Stage is so critical, in that it is made possible by accepting the idea of transitioning from what we have known and grown comfortable with, to something unknown, yet inevitable. The peace that comes in this stage derives from gaining the knowledge that what we have experienced is no longer possible.

For the American public, acceptance will come when we decide: 

• That things cannot go back to the way they were in the 1990's.
  
• The house we own is going to be worth about 30-45% of it's 2006 value.
  
• Owning a home in their lifetime will not be a reality for a large number of people.
  
• There will be a rise in unemployment and an (almost) across the board reduction in wages in the near future.
  
• The ability to buy a new car, let alone every 4 years,  has already been altered for a large number of the populace.
  
• Volunteerism, social activism and local purchasing decisions are going to be required to assist in this turnaround, and I mean from everyone.
  
• Government is not gong to solve this, at least not exclusively.
  
• Wild expansion & profiteering is a thing of the past, slow growth is the new way forward.
  
• Rampant consumerism does not have to go away, but needs to at least slow down in the interim.
  

All things that I would never hope for, but are required to find the peace we need as a country to move forward and regain our footing.

Four decades ago Elisabeth Kubler-Ross changed the way the medical profession deals with the aggrieved, including those with terminal illnesses. Perhaps, using her ingenious model, we can find our way, as a country, out of the darkness of our current situation.

Can we do it?

With apologies to Bob the Builder and the President-elect, Yes We Can!

Required Reading

I implore you to read THIS article.

It deals with a number of themes I have discussed over the last month regarding the mindset of the American consumer and, most interestingly,  our inability to alter our shopping habits.

The title is the tease:

"People Pulling Up to Pawnshops Today Are Driving Cadillacs and BMWs"

And so it continues to begin...

Another Reason To Run...

From retail stocks.

The natural squabbles that arise in crisis are starting to play themselves out. However, this one is huge. Primarily because it deals with what has already happened, as well as the future.

A little known side of retail are the guarantees that vendors make with large stores for their profit margins. Retailers are more likely to buy more merchandise if they know vendors will cover the difference for the items that are sold under the agreed level of profitability, usually in the neighborhood of 40%.

This article (HERE) spells out the "war" playing itself out now between vendors and retailers, due to the tremendous, and early, markdowns taken this holiday season. The thing that makes this so critical is, this is the time of year retailers usually await checks making up the difference in the margins from vendors. This year the opposite is happening, with vendors negotiating to receive re-payment for the unprecedented discounting of their goods by several major retailers.

As Cotten Timberlake at Bloomberg reports:

If vendors succeed, they could recoup $1.2 billion from Macy’s, Penney, Kohl’s, Nordstrom, Dillard’s and Saks Inc. alone, based on analysts’ average estimated fourth-quarter sales of $24.2 billion for those six chains.   (emphasis is mine)

Which means, not only will retailers be hit by much smaller profit margins than anytime in the last 40-50 years, not only will there be no gross margin dollars flowing to them from vendors that usually guarantee those profit margins, but the retailers, after all this bad news is sorted out, will be making payments to these vendors, further reducing profits.

That may be the biggest story in retail so far to emerge from a season of big stories.

Keep an eye out.

Home Alone

From my inbox 12/30/08:

I cannot, for the life of me, ever remember a furniture store doing "additional" percentages off  on clearance. Usually it is a straight mark, with prices reflected on the ticket.

One thing that has always worked for the home market, is really working against it right now. That thing is long leads on delivery. When you ordered a sofa and it took 3 months to deliver that gave the furniture store plenty of time to resource and negotiate, thus ensuring maximum profitability. 

They are now faced with inventory showing up that was ordered in May, June, July, August and even early-September. This has caused a glut in inventory, leading to high storage fees and forced reductions on goods to get them out the door.

If you go 3 posts back on this blog you will see I predict very bad things for all things home, save the cookware category.

The main problem retailers are having now seems to be an enlightened consumer. Everyone knows prices are going to go down further. So those few people with money (and there are only a few) are sitting on their hands until after the new year to see where the pricing game goes.

Thinning Profits (and the Herd!)

The following are photos from my monthly walk along Michigan Avenue, Rush and Oak Streets. This two mile stretch has every store, covering every niche, in the entirety of the retail marketplace. What I decided to do is document what I saw, where I saw it and, just to get 2009 on everyone's mind, share what I think the fate of the particular retailer holds in the near future.

Before we start, please understand this very important fact:

With VERY few exceptions, when a store sells something for 50% off, they are losing money on the item. Yes, I know all about margin builders and the like, but those are a very rare exception in the overall assortment.

The reason for the loss is simple, here is an example:

Store A buys a dress for $40
Store A decides to sell the dress for $100 (a 55-60 mark being about industry norm).
If they sell the $100 dress for 50% off at $50 it would seem they made $10 profit, right?

Wrong!

Store a had to pay for the trip to New York for it's buying teams.
Pay for the paper to write the order on.
Pay the salary of the buyer that makes such decisions.
Pay for advertising, in-store signing and and the like.
Pay for medical, dental, 401k and other retirement benefits for their employees.
Pay for the real estate costs, insurance, design and fixture costs for their stores.

There is more: loan repayments, legal fees and market research, but you get the idea.

Such costs cannot be covered from that $10 profit, unless you sell hundreds of millions of those dresses (which is what Walmart is so good at).

That being said, the signs you see below should read as something out of SAW IV, not Happyland.

While this will bode very well for the consumer, it, quite literally, means the end for more than a few of these stores.

As always, all images can be clicked to get a larger, more detailed view.

Let's get it started:

This is Aldo, the shoe store that competes against 9 West when their goods are full price and Payless once they put their goods on sale. They are over saturated and overly dependent on mall traffic to drive sales. When was the last time you heard a friend say, "Hey, let's go to Aldo." I thought not. I see this chain closing 50% of it's locations, and/or seeking bankruptcy protection by May 2009.


Brooks Brothers will be fine. When the economy goes sour, people dress better. Even during the Great Depression this was the case. People without jobs wore suit and tie, just to feel a part of society. Brooks Brothers is an iconic brand that more than a few people will discover a other options from overseas start to disappear. Don't look for expansion, just look for them to make it through the economic downturn in one piece, which is sort of an A- or B+.


Walt Disney stores. During the Great Depression this company was hit so hard it had to do something radical just to remain relevant. What they did was start doing live action films, s Snow White and the like were not really meaningful after the war. This time, Disney is better suited for the though economic climate ahead. The acquisition of Pixar Studios two years ago gives Disney a foothold on smart, cutting edge filmmaking that not only deals with tough issues and ideas, but seeks them out. That being said, they SHOULD close their stores, but won't. Tourism to the Disney family of theme parks will plummet, so giving your child a little piece of Disney, if even in the form of a Happy Meal, may become all the more important. We'll see, but Toys, as a category, took a bath this holiday.



Sak's Fifth Avenue is going away. If not altogether, much like the sign below, 75% of it will. Someone has to convince me why not. See, you can't, can you? Saks has long thought itself Neiman's and run itself like Enron. If someone peeped behind the curtain, OOPS! you got us. This holiday season should pretty much end what has been a 6-7 year flirtation with a $5 stock price. Credit is tightening, so look for investors to pull of their roots and  go elsewhere. Sak's is nice, but not necessary. This will be one of the biggest, in name, casualties of this economic downturn. Obama Stimulus, or not.


Neiman Marcus is really in a class by itself. The brand represents the pinnacle of the American retail marketplace. They will benefit more from Saks' demise than anyone beside, perhaps, Nordstrom. Without the presence of Sak's, Neimans should see better gross margins due to not having to price match/ compete in many of their markets, which will lead to more profitability. Neiman's would be one of my real winners for 2009, save for one mistake...and it ain't small.

Why they decided to open up so many of these CUSP boutiques is beyond me. They are aimed at just the market niche that is most impacted by, first the housing collapse and now, the Great Recession. The combination of $600 blue jeans, $1800 driving jackets and long-term mall leases does not make for a good recipe for the future we face. This ultimately will be a VERY costly drag on the company and expect them to exit the idea entirely by the beginning of 2010.

BCBG, the retailer that never really was, will go back to selling it's goods in stores exclusively. For the life of me I cannot think of a more gracious thing to say, other than the sooner the better. 50% reduction by the beginning of 2010, perhaps entirely. They still have a strong, desirable brand for young adults, though.


Juicy Couture, in short will be in big trouble. Rapid expansion, usually means rapid reduction. Juicy has a great brand, but they are waaaaay overextended as far as different balls in the air. Look for them to rapidly shift to licensing, if that is an available option. Store closings and a return to being a vendor, not a retailer.



Yves Saint Laurent will be fine. I just wanted to illustrate the point that EVERYONE is on sale.



Children's clothing boutiques will be one of the first to get wiped out. Over the last decade no category has had faster growth and prices within this category have not been tied to anything sane. $100 shirts, $125 jeans and $70 t-shirts have become the norm from NEW DESIGNERS, not even luxury brands.

All things related to children will see growth, as people will think of their kids before themselves, but most Childrens boutiques will take a back seat to the Target's and Kohls's of the world. This has actually already started, evidence being the bath toy's took this December.



Home related stores are already in deep trouble (see Home Depot), though few really know by how much. To get a grasp of the outlook for this segment of retailing you need only one fact: January is the second most important month of the year for furniture-makers. So many home stores will go under within the first half of this year, survival will come down to how long you can hold on? If you can make it to July, and less than 50% will, you may have a chance at getting through the year flat. Habit will drive people to stores in the first quarter of the year, but I cannot think of a segment of retail so heavily dependent on credit, save automobiles. This obviously is a recipe for disaster.



Bye-Bye...



Those in the know understand why I included this photo, as a "sale" sign at this company is virtually unheard of. The early part of this economic downturn will benefit "stay-at-home" stores which related to: cooking at home instead of going out, watching dvd's at home as opposed to going to movies and buying liquor for home gathering as opposed to going out to bars and clubs.

What happens after the summer within these categories is anyones guess at the moment. If things start to rebound (which I don't see) they will maintain their balance. Though should there be no clear vision of an end to the downturn, look for them to be hit hard by September, complete with lots of closings and bankruptcies.



Not enough stores at MaxMara to have mass closings, but they will feel the realities of the economy, hardcore. Light inventory and staff cuts are in their very near future.



When you sell everything in your store for $20, as H&M does, you cannot survive by selling everything for $10. Margins are too thin at this company to help pay for what has been a very rapid expansion. Look for LOTS of store closings for this European company, same goes for Forever 21 and Charlotte Russe. Bankruptcy is not out of the question for any of them.



Let's be real. Borders is in big trouble. Not liquidation trouble, but trouble nonetheless. Immediate store closings after the new year, staff reductions at other locations and possibly bankruptcy protection for reorganization purposes. The good news for them is they have been putting out fires for 6-8 months at the company, so they are a bit further along in their planning than other retailers.



Ralph Lauren is on SALE!!!!! Run, don't walk!!! Their strong department store business will carry them for the next few years, one of the few companies with such a luxury.



Banana Republic (Gap and Old Navy) are in some very big trouble. Over-saturation in every market, irrelevant fashion assortments and long-range turnaround plans aimed at fashion, not efficiency mean bad news. Look for lots of closings, lots and lots of corporate lay-offs and a possible split of the company, which might be best. Banana, however, will be hit the hardest. It participates in the niche with the most competition, 20-40 year-old new professionals. Zara is going to dominate this market once it gets set with it's expansion, Express has more money and focus (though they are already suffering) and their clientele is already starting to dip into the XXI's and Junior departments at larger retailers in search of discounted merchandise.



Bye-Bye Talbot's! I don't see how they will emerge from this in one piece. Immediate store closings, immediate mass lay-offs and perhaps even liquidation.



As I stated earlier, Limited Brands (Express, Limited, Express Men) is going to take a significant hit. They have too many stores to begin with, but the fact they control the entire process (from design, textiles, maufacture and shipping) of everything in their stores may save them in the long run. Wexler is smart and visionary, so we will see if he was able to make the necessary adjustments to his machine before September, if not....ouch!



Very hard to write these words, but Crate & Barrel may not make it. I am a Chicagoan, so I grew up alongside this company. Going to the first store with my mother when I was small boy. That aside, the company has become less relevant with each passing year due to more copycats, with lower prices. In the movie It's A Wonderful Life, Clarence the angel tells George Bailey, "every time a bell rings, an angel gets its' wings." Well in the non-celluliod world, every time an Ikea opens a Crate & Barrel loses it's wings, or appeal.

I am pulling for you C&B, I just don't see how you emerge from this unscathed.



Ann Taylor closing are a given. Too many stores, reduction in clientele (less job holders means less clothes needed), loads of competition at every conceivable price-point and bloated inventory levels all point to bad times ahead. Look for quick moves to bankruptcy protection and, ultimately, a BIG downsizing by the middle of next year.



These types of stores (H20 and Bath and Body) are basically gone. They can only operate profitably when selling goods at full price, which is no longer an option. So take this test, will you spend the $15 you have on a new shirt, sweater, groceries or six ounces of green-apple bubble bath. Thought so!



The question for retailers like Levi's becomes, will their customer base continue to buy jeans from their boutiques at $90-$145, or start buying the lesser-weight versions from Kohls for $19.99-$40.00? I think the latter is more probable, so that is not good news for the store side of Levi's.



Ditto for Kenneth Cole. This is value-brand that has never been priced at value. So as a retailer, good-bye! As a vendor, you have a bright future.



Ditto Emporio Armani. The good thing for this company is there are not many of their stores to close, but close they will.

Stores that are not on Michigan Ave. that face major problems:

Sears - Kohls is kicking their butt and will continue to do so. Tightening credit means far less major appliance sales, less home-building means fewer tool sales. How can they withstand a double-hit like that in their two main areas of strength?

Macy's - Contraction is inevitable. Look for closings of 75-200 stores rather quickly. Bankruptcy is not out of the question, as they have massive debt payments due in the first half of 2009. Swollen inventories and lease obligations spell bad news.

All Jewelers - Contraction in this market will be unrelenting. A bad 4th quarter (-35%) will only make the thinning less merciful. Look for the elimination of 25-50% of all mall-based jewelers by June.

Numbers Start To Trickle...

Retailers will not be forced to share Holiday numbers until the 7th of January, or so. However, the analyst's numbers have already started breaking, and all I can say is WOW!!!!!!!!

Must read article from the Wall Street Journal HERE.

This came in very late last night on Christmas Day, so I knew the news would be bad. The numbers actually play out in line with what I have been telling you for the last 7 weeks, retail got mugged this season.

The strange thing to come out of this report is how far off the actuals are from everyone's estimates. After Black Friday we were told, in spite of the photojournalistic evidence provided by yours truly, that "sales were up", and "things might not be as bad as expected."

Now that we are dealing with the staticity of facts, everyone is stating the obvious, this was one of the worst shopping seasons since the compilation of retail figures began.

The only thing scarier than these numbers is what lies ahead.

Topical Depression

"Man is the only animal that blushes. Or needs to."

-Mark Twain (Following the Equator)

While studying the Great Depression over the last 16 months in anticipation of the collapse of our financial markets, I have, for the first time, been exposed to hundreds of photographs from the late-1920's and early-1930's.

In seeing just how abject basic life was for most people during the Great Depression, I got to thinking of how glad I am that America, as a country, has more weapons to ensure that the tide will not sink that low again. Government services are better run and more prepared for such things. People have more connectivity with one another, so if there is need in one part of the country, the word can get out to the proper authorities to assist in providing the goods and services needed to remedy the situation. And so on...

So we can all rest assured that even though it will be tough, there is no chance it will reach the depths of despondency visited upon the public in the early 20th Century, right?

This is more than likely the most famous picture of the Great Depression. A mother with her two children. She stares slightly away from the camera sending the conflicting messages of both strength/fortitude, as well as almost resigned helplessness. Her children look away from the camera while leaning on one of the two things they have learned to rely on in their young lives, their mother. The other being hunger.

Here a doctor attends to two children during Hurricane Katrina recovery efforts. The lady feigns a faint smile, but the children's comfort in her arms tell the true story. Naked, comfortable and asleep while in the arms of a perfect stranger. Only living through chaos of the highest order would allow children to settle in so comfortably in such circumstances. The adult must be considering the fate of the children, even as she ponders the next order of business in her effort to assist those in need. 

So there we have it, the beginning of a quick reminder that anything is possible. 

The following images will compare images culled from The Great Depression and juxtapose them with those of Hurricane Katrina. The similarities are eerie, but perhaps it can lead to a better handling of our civic situation, should things turn (and I pray they do not) for the worse for our country.

I will cease with the melodramatic commentary going forward, limiting myself to more simple observations.

Both situations produced unimaginable housing conditions:

We cannot allow this to happen a third time to our neighbors.

Families found they had to travel with all their worldly possessions in the search for a new start.

The constant migration lead to children being exposed to conditions, which ultimately proved deleterious to their health and well-being.

People stood in long lines, hoping for basic provisions for their families. Be it a bread line, or a line for potable water.

The signs from the citizenry called out for basic human dignity, NOT hand-outs.

Each and every time I think about how much more equipped we are as a country to handle Depression-like circumstances, I think of the massive failure in the last massive crisis we had to deal with on American soil.

Signs were everywhere before the disaster, giving us ample time to avert disaster.

This Doppler image from Katrina: 

This (and every other) HEADLINE from 1929 (gave a heads up 6 months before starvation became widespread).
Are we ignoring our canary?

I, for one, hope not.

A Millie Here, A Millie There

"Final" October retail sales figures are out. There are lots of reasons it takes a few weeks to sift through the chaff to produce what really happened.

The good folks at Seeking Alpha (you should visit daily) crunched all the numbers for you and had this to say:

"Department stores are struggling the most, with specialty stores not far behind. Both are at their lowest levels in the history of the Bloomberg indices."

They are using the Bloomberg metric, so when they say "worst", they mean since 1992, which is still amazing because nobody compiled these figures as comprehensively before that time.

You can view the entire report HERE.