Julian Opie
In american, In art, In artist, In contemporary, In him, In interior, In resourceThursday, November 13
Funneling Information
In credit, In economy, In future, In holiday 2008, In information, In majors, In online retailerTuesday, November 11
Lunch is great. For me, business lunches are even better.
I have, for the last 2 years, hosted a monthly luncheon with eight retail managers from 4 major retailers and two specialty retailers. These casual affairs are generally an open forum, with my refraining from asking questions, allowing for conversation to flow more freely as opposed to shaped discussion.
It is during these lunches that I have been able to forecast several retail trends, though strangely, those at the meetings have not had similar success.
A sampling of such trends include:
- Tightening Credit- Almost everyone complained in April/ May about not meeting new credit goals.
- Death of Group Think - No longer were items driving businesses, bespoke is now everything.
- Guess Work at Merchandising Level - This had more to do with lack of strong item call from consumers.
- Trouble for Men's Categories - When most companies saw men's shoe business slow in October '07, the rest of the men's business unit was sure to follow. Which led to...
- Women' Career Clothing Issues - It took until the beginning of the Spring, but nobody doubts how devastating this has been across the board.
Having a group of highly-intelligent, business savvy merchants from so many companies is a luxury I wish upon any consultant/analyst. I am regularly blown away by the shear magnitude of useful information and ideas that come from our meetings. However, the meeting we held last Thursday was both illuminating and troubling.
It was the first time I felt the group was completely out of touch. Not with retail trends, but REALITY!
They spoke of "hiring up" for the holiday season, "loads" of new merchandise flowing into the stores, "huge" upcoming events that "were going to drive business" and the like. I decided to break protocol and ask a few questions.
- Had any of the participants been told to watch their staffing levels, especially for post-Thanksgiving business?
- Had anyone been talked to about the many challenges that lie ahead after the Holiday season?
- Had anyone been given instruction this year that differed greatly from last year's game plan?
- Had anyone seen a significant shift in the amount of merchandise arriving at stores so far this season?
The answer for each was a resounding and unanimous NO! I can tell you that I am not easily shocked, but this, literally, took my breath away.
The problems facing the retail industry right now are much akin to a Perfect Storm. An economy that has been progressively slowing, a severely tightening credit market, record household debt, record home-foreclosures, joblessness claims at record levels, new credit-card legislation on the horizon and public promising to spend less than the previous year for the first time in years. Perhaps worst of all, a high profile, historic election that distracted the entire public from these realities..., until now.
Every major retailer has been disappointing with Sales figures for months, and most have done major downgrades on earning forecasts for the 4th quarter. All of this leads one to believe that the upper-level executives at these companies are aware of the tough environment they are facing. So the question that begs out is, why this sentiment is not being filtered down to the store level?
Keeping the stores in the dark may prove easier, or more comfortable, as nobody wants to cause panic at the disco, ultimately though, the lack of full disclosure will lead to less success this season and failure during the first half of 2009.
What can be done now? For starters, communication between the merchant teams and stores has to take place every day. Floor rotations and staffing levels should be worked out via team effort, and done to reflect short trend lines (3-7 days, max).
- Buyers need to STOP BUYING! On hand inventory is the only important factor right now. If sales stay on the track they have been over the last 30 days, there is no chance you will have money or space for new arrivals come January. I have spoken with executives and store managers at several discount/ off-price retailers, the consensus seems to be that they have too much merchandise coming in right now. This is great for the discount chains (Filene's, TJX, Nordstrom Rack), but ultimately the reason for the surplus is bad purchasing decisions in the regular retailers.
- Cut store promotions (wine & cheese, celebrity appearances/ signings), as consumers have shown this is exclusively a price-driven retail environment.
- The urgency within the stores, should be similar to what executives feel when they are expressing regret for the continual downward revisions of earnings estimates.
- Focus of moving merchandise like the next seven weeks are your last in business.
There are too many analysts betting against the Retail Sector this season. The winners that emerge will do so stronger, and in better shape to meet the many challenges of 2009.
Terry Tynan Lighting
In american, In art deco, In artist, In contemporary, In him, In lighting, In officeSunday, November 9
Terry Tynan Lighting
In american, In art deco, In artist, In contemporary, In home, In lighting, In office
The Old Testament!
In basics, In books, In color, In him, In interior, In read
The only book I demand you own.
I will recommend other, but this is a requirement.
Get it right here.
The Old Testament!
In basics, In books, In color, In home, In interior, In readThe only book I demand you own.
I will recommend other, but this is a requirement.
Get it right here.
Home Starts With Flowers
In entry, In flowers, In him, In home
Every "home" begins with flowers.
Upon entering a home, flowers:
Excite the sense of smell.
Give charge to your visual battery.
Become the topic of conversation
This has been understood for quite some time, which is why flowers are always given prime space in proper entry areas.
Additionally, it explains why the aristocracy in Europe took more pride in their gardens than their art collections. But we will get to gardens in due time.
Home Starts With Flowers
In entry, In flowers, In homeEvery "home" begins with flowers.
Upon entering a home, flowers:
Excite the sense of smell.
Give charge to your visual battery.
Become the topic of conversation
This has been understood for quite some time, which is why flowers are always given prime space in proper entry areas.
Additionally, it explains why the aristocracy in Europe took more pride in their gardens than their art collections. But we will get to gardens in due time.
A Quick Editorial
In himFriday, November 7
If you were to die this instant, without warning, and you had to choose one person on earth to complete your total look for the funeral, whom would you leave the task to?
If you said your mother, you would be wrong!
The only person that can be entrusted with that kind of responsibility is....
Tom Ford!
He is the fashion industry's Chuck Norris.
I mean I dare you to click on the image above. You won't because then you are confronted with staring at a plain white shirt that's prettier than your girlfriend.
Just deal with it.
If I have to convince you, you are not worth convincing.
You can, however, at some point in your day of scrubbing fashion's toilets, mosey over to THIS SITE and join the rest of the 21st century.
The Big Get...YSL
In him, In leg, In luxury, In shoes
Rolling Sneaker by YSL
$410.
Elbow you way to the top of the sneaker food chain.
Buy Her What She Really Wants This X-mas
In him, In lady, In lavish, In learn, In luxury
Yes I know you've heard there is nothing like the look on a woman's face after receiving a teal box from Tiffany. But this must be the 3rd or 4th year her gift has come from the Sterling Silver room.
Haven't you started to suspect why she has been asking you so many questions about EBay?
Van Cleef & Arpels is much more rare and classy (you stay that way San Diego!).
Start with a pair of these earrings from the Alhambra Vintage Collection. Unlike everything else you bought her so far, she will pass these on to your daughter.
Buy them HERE.
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